More than 60 per cent of MPs are likely to lose their seats, an opinion poll released yesterday by Ipsos shows.
According to the poll, 42 per cent of respondents said their MP is not likely to be reelected, 39 per cent said they are likely to retain their seats, while 19 per cent said “don’t know”.
Among Jubilee supporters, 46 per cent believe their MPs will not be reelected, while 37 per cent of opposition supporters have a similar view. Interestingly, two out of 10 Kenyans cannot correctly name their current MP. Nairobi and Coast have the biggest proportion.
The poll says 58 per cent of Coast residents named their MP correctly, while in Nairobi, only 60 per cent of respondents did so.
“In urban areas, such knowledge is often lower as many urban respondents pay more attention to their homes in rural areas,” the pollster explained.
While 51 per cent of the respondents said their MP belongs to Jubilee, 30 per cent said NASA-Cord, while 17 per cent suggested they don’t know where their representatives belong.
Despite being an opposition stronghold, 40 per cent of the respondents at the Coast said their MP belongs to the Jubilee Party. Eighteen per cent of respondents in Nyanza said their MP is in Jubilee, while 22 per cent said the same in Western.
Nyanza and Western are perceived opposition strongholds.
“While three-quarters of Jubilee supporters indicate their MP is associated with the ruling party, only slightly more than half of Cord-NASA supporters say their MP belongs to that political grouping,” Ipsos said.
Sixteen per cent of respondents whose MPs belong to the opposition view the MPs as having “defected or moved closer” to Jubilee, the highest proportion being residents of Eastern and Nyanza.
“This reflects recent political developments, especially in Ukambani and Gusiiland,” Ipsos said.
The main perceived reason for such defection is for their own “personal benefit” or ”greed”. Five times more of Jubilee supporters hold this view.”
Public confidence levels in the National Assembly and the Senate are nearly the same, with just over half of Kenyans having either “a lot” or “some confidence” in them both.
However, the number of those with “no confidence at all” in these two Houses are nearly double those having “a lot of confidence”.